Commonwealth Bank updates interest rate outlook as Aussies told to brace for $1,464 hit in days
发布时间:2026-09-21 | 浏览:1
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The nation's largest mortgage lender has again shifted its outlook for borrowers, expecting interest rates to be lifted in just days. Mortgage holders and business borrowers should brace for a 0.25 per cent increases from the RBA next week , Commonwealth Bank says.
CBA most recently thought the RBA would hold fire before raising rates in November. But worsening economic conditions and surging petrol prices mean multiple rake hikes are increasingly likely .
"There has been a build‑up of factors over recent weeks to see us bring forward our call from November to September," chief economist Belinda Allen said in a market update this morning.
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While some economists and market participants are predicting as many as three rate hikes will be needed to finally stamp out rising inflation , CBA economists remains somewhat less hawkish.
"The risk sits with the need to tighten monetary policy further beyond September given the inflation backdrop but it is not an easy decision to push monetary policy further into restrictive territory," Allen said.
"The Australian economy is slowing, the housing market is undertaking a large downturn and the labour market is closer to balance than it has been in years and the risks to inflation and growth will even out with further tightening."
The market is tipping a more than 90 per cent chance of a rate hike when the RBA meets to begin next week, likely taking the cash rate to 4.60 per cent – its highest level in 15 years.
"Even if we see some relief in oil prices, we still see the RBA lifting this meeting given the flow of data since the August Board meeting. July CPI and GDP have both printed stronger than RBA expectations," Allen said.
ANZ adds another rate hike to its forecast
After CBA updated its position, ANZ was close behind on Monday morning, echoing the bad news for borrowers. It has gone further by projecting an increase in September and November.
"We now expect the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25bp in September, in addition to the 25bp rate hike we already have in for November. That would take the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, the highest since 2008," ANZ economists said.
The lender doesn't expect a rate cut until November 2027, more than 13 months away.
"Given the rapid re-emergence of inflation after the prior easing cycle, we expect the RBA Board will be slow and cautious when it comes to eventually cutting rates."
Mortgage holders will pay an extra $485 a month on $800,000 loan
While unsure of how many more rate hikes Australians should brace for, the Commonwealth Bank still believes there will be some relief late in 2027 with the RBA able to cut rates.
"We now see the cash rate on hold for longer than our previous assessment. We push our rate cuts out as a result till August and November 2027."
However the bank's economists last week also said they now believe the neutral cash rate – the level of interest rates that are not stimulatory or restrictive – is now higher at 3.85 per cent, suggesting higher rates for longer.
Another rate hike would be the fourth this year. According to analysis from consumer site Canstar, a hike next week would add an extra $122 a month to a mortgage of $800,000, or $1,464 a year.
As that same loan size (which is lower than the average new mortgage taken out in NSW), four rate hikes this year mean mortgage holders are forking out $485 extra on repayments each month.
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